Everyone’s anticipating the results from a SurveyUSA mayoral poll that will appear in Sunday’s Courier-Journal. With less than 10 weeks until the May primary, the local media can only use fundraising totals, campaign advertisements and endorsements to measure the horse race thus far, but the poll will certainly shake things up from what we’re hearing.
After an evening of dogged reporting and fact-checking, LEO Weekly has gotten some numbers that are close (if not, exact) to what we believe you’ll see in a couple of days. However, we should add that questions remain about the poll’s margin of error, number of voters surveyed and whether it polled name recognition or potential turnout.
Undecided — 35 percent
Greg Fischer — 20 percent
David Tandy — 17 percent
Jim King — 12 percent
Tyler Allen — 8 percent
Shannon White, Connie Marshall, Lisa Moxely and Burrel Charles Farnsley — less than 4 percent combined.
Undecided — 32 percent
Chris Thieneman — 34 percent
Hal Heiner — 30 percent
Jonathan Robertson — 4 percent
What do you think? Let’s keep our eyes open for Sunday’s edition.
UPDATE: The print exclusive story covering the mayoral poll results is in the C-J, but here in the 21st century you can find the SurveyUSA results online. And it looks like the information we had was pretty much dead on.
What’s obvious is that most voters are still on the fence about all of the candidates. The poll results show 1 in 3 are undecided in both primaries. That means it’s still anyone’s race and you could see a lot change before May 18.
Among likely voters in the Republican primary, developer Chris Thieneman (34 percent) and Metro Councilman Hal Heiner, R-19, (30 percent) are pretty much tied given the margin of error. It’s likely the Heiner campaign will spin this disappointing outcome as a reflection of Thieneman’s name recognition given that he’s run for county clerk and U.S. Congress previously. However, it’s certainly a boost for the Thieneman campaign that they’ll play up over the next few weeks.
On the Democratic side, it’s much more crowded and complicated. Take a look at the dynamics of likely voters who favor businessman Greg Fischer (20 percent) and Metro Councilman David Tandy, D-4, (17 percent), who are the two leading candidates.
From the poll analysis:
Fischer leads among white Democrats; Tandy leads among black Democrats. Tandy runs strong among those who attend church regularly; Fischer leads among those who almost never attend church. King and Tandy do well among pro-life Democrats; Fischer leads among pro-choice Democrats. Fischer’s supporters are more affluent, Tandy’s supporters less so.
It’s also noteworthy that Councilman Jim King, D-10, who has over $1 million in his campaign bank account, and 8664 co-founder Tyler Allen are within the margin of error of each other.