The C-J mayoral poll (updated)

Everyone’s anticipating the results from a SurveyUSA mayoral poll that will appear in Sunday’s Courier-Journal. With less than 10 weeks until the May primary, the local media can only use fundraising totals, campaign advertisements and endorsements to measure the horse race thus far, but the poll will certainly shake things up from what we’re hearing.

After an evening of dogged reporting and fact-checking, LEO Weekly has gotten some numbers that are close (if not, exact) to what we believe you’ll see in a couple of days. However, we should add that questions remain about the poll’s margin of error, number of voters surveyed and whether it polled name recognition or potential turnout.

Democrats:

Undecided — 35 percent

Greg Fischer — 20 percent

David Tandy — 17 percent

Jim King — 12 percent

Tyler Allen — 8 percent

Shannon White, Connie Marshall, Lisa Moxely and Burrel Charles Farnsley — less than 4 percent combined.

Republicans:

Undecided — 32 percent

Chris Thieneman — 34 percent

Hal Heiner — 30 percent

Jonathan Robertson — 4 percent

What do you think? Let’s keep our eyes open for Sunday’s edition.

UPDATE: The print exclusive story covering the mayoral poll results is in the C-J, but here in the 21st century you can find the SurveyUSA results online. And it looks like the information we had was pretty much dead on.

What’s obvious is that most voters are still on the fence about all of the candidates. The poll results show 1 in 3 are undecided in both primaries. That means it’s still anyone’s race and you could see a lot change before May 18.

Among likely voters in the Republican primary, developer Chris Thieneman (34 percent) and Metro Councilman Hal Heiner, R-19, (30 percent) are pretty much tied given the margin of error. It’s likely the Heiner campaign will spin this disappointing outcome as a reflection of Thieneman’s name recognition given that he’s run for county clerk and U.S. Congress previously. However, it’s certainly a boost for the Thieneman campaign that they’ll play up over the next few weeks.

On the Democratic side, it’s much more crowded and complicated. Take a look at the dynamics of likely voters who favor businessman Greg Fischer (20 percent) and Metro Councilman David Tandy, D-4, (17 percent), who are the two leading candidates.

From the poll analysis:

Fischer leads among white Democrats; Tandy leads among black Democrats. Tandy runs strong among those who attend church regularly; Fischer leads among those who almost never attend church. King and Tandy do well among pro-life Democrats; Fischer leads among pro-choice Democrats. Fischer’s supporters are more affluent, Tandy’s supporters less so.

It’s also noteworthy that Councilman Jim King, D-10, who has over $1 million in his campaign bank account, and 8664 co-founder Tyler Allen are within the margin of error of each other.

3 Comments

  1. Curt Morrison
    Posted March 12, 2010 at 11:11 pm | Permalink

    Volunteers from Tyler’s campaign will be handing out bumper stickers (and our slick new literature no one has seen!) at Saturday’s St. Patrick’s parade in the Highlands.

    The parade starts starts at 3 PM at Mid-City Mall. PB-Am I allowed to comment that?

  2. Zach@zacheverson.com
    Posted March 14, 2010 at 1:08 pm | Permalink

    Nimbus?

  3. Harold
    Posted March 14, 2010 at 11:36 pm | Permalink

    i hope these are the results in May! Maybe money wont win. Wouldnt that be sweet and refreshing. Time for some new faces in Louisville!

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  1. By King debuts first mayoral TV ad - FatLip on March 15, 2010 at 5:12 pm

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