The latest SurveyUSA poll shows Democratic Congressman John Yarmuth with only a 2-point lead over Republican challenger Todd Lally, which is within the 4.3 percent margin of error.
If the election was today in Kentucky’s Third Congressional District, the WHAS11/Courier-Journal Bluegrass Poll says it would be a photo finish. Two term incumbent Democrat John Yarmuth is ahead by two points, but the relative unknown Republican Todd Lally appears to be riding an anti-incumbent, conservative wave.
Yarmuth (D) 47%
Lally (R) 45%
The poll of 541 likely voters is a statistical tie and isn’t the first time Lally, a lieutenant colonel in the Kentucky Air National Guard, has surprised political observers. In July, he managed to raise $289,000 compared to Yarmuth’s $204,000 in second quarter fundraising.
Still, the two-term congressman has more cash on hand to spend in the race with a hefty $600,000 in his coffers. And in an interview with WHAS-11, Yarmuth downplayed the poll and said the community doesn’t know Lally or the full breath of his views.
But the Lally campaign should be encouraged by the recent developments, as the GOP takes an unprecedented lead in national polls heading into the fall election. According to Gallup, Republicans have a 10 percentage point advantage over Democrats on generic ballots among registered voters.
“These results confirm what we have been hearing from voters all across the district. Louisvillians are attracted to my candidacy because I believe the best way to create jobs is through lower taxes and less wasteful government spending,” Lally said in a news release. “Voters are rejecting John Yarmuth because he has voted with Nancy Pelosi 99% of the time and he continues to support her agenda over what is best for Louisville. I look forward to continuing to get this message out to voters and will work hard for every vote between now and Election Day.”
The poll shows Libertarian Ed Martin and independent Michael Hansen polling with one percent each.