Just 18 days away from the election, cn|2 has their new poll numbers out, and not only do they show Steve Beshear continuing to stomp David Williams in the gubernatorial race, they show an eminent Democratic sweep.
Here are cn|2′s numbers, with their movement from cn|2′s August poll:
Steve Beshear (D)- 54 percent
David Williams (R)- 26 percent
Gatewood Galbraith (I)- 8 percent
Jack Conway (D)- 56.1 percent (+ 2.9 from August)
Todd P’Pool (R)- 26.6 percent (+ 0.2 from August)
Adam Edelen (D)- 38.5 percent (+ 7.0 from August)
John Kemper (R)- 29.2 percent (+0.6 from August)
Secretary of State
Alison Lundergan Grimes (D)- 40.8 percent (+4.0)
Bill Johnson (R)- 30.3 percent (+2.4)
Todd Hollenbach (D)- 46.7 percent (+4.0 from August)
K.C. Crosbie (R)- 22.0 percent (+0.9 from August)
Ken Moellman (L)- 4.3 percent (-0.8 from August
Commissioner of Agriculture
Bob Farmer (D)- 45.1 percent (- 0.2 from August)
James Comer (R)- 28.6 percent (+2.9 from August)
With both Edelen and Grimes going on the air heavily and unchallenged by their opponent, expect those leads to increase. The only real bright spot here for Republicans is Jamie Comer — the only the candidate to make up ground since August — who will soon be on the air with many more ads than the underfunded Farmer. This is definitely their best chance to avoid a sweep.
The worst news in this poll for Republicans is the trouncing of Todd P’Pool by Jack Conway, the margin of which is kind of shocking, and I’m still a bit skeptical. Considering Conway has more money to spend over the next three weeks, such a deficit would be virtually impossible to overcome. In the cn|2 write up, the P’Pool and Comer campaigns laugh at their numbers and mock them, saying their internal polls show a tight race and cn|2′s polling can’t be trusted. But if they really did show a different story, you’d think they would release them, right? Unless they want Democrats to be overconfident and not know what hit them on Nov. 8. Plus, if their internals really did show closer races, one might wonder what kind of “poll” that was (AHEM).
But then again, there is the matter of turnout. With a record low number of voters expected to go to the polls, these down-ticket races have a chance of being very unpredictable. So the big question is, will the Republicans be more demoralized than the Democrats are over-confident (or, issue-wise, demoralized)?