Sen. Damon Thayer released the map of his proposal to redistrict Kentucky’s congressional districts today, and unlike Greg Stumbo’s draft released two weeks ago, this one doesn’t have a lot of major changes.
The only change of real note is in the 6th district, which had a razor-tight race between Ben Chandler and Andy Barr last year.
As we analyzed then, Stumbo’s plan made the 6th district considerably more Democratic. When we estimated what the results of the 2010 election would have been in that race, Chandler’s tight 647 vote margin of victory became a much more comfortable 7,841 vote victory.
However, Damon Thayer’s map makes the 6th slightly more Republican. Even though the difference is small, any change in a race this tight could swing the results, as we show below.
Under Thayer’s map, the 6th sheds Powell County (which Chandler won by 750 votes), Estill County (which Barr won by just 164 votes), and half of Montgomery County (which Chandler won by 716 votes). The 6th gains the rest of Scott County (which Barr won by almost 1,000 votes) and the rest of Lincoln County (which Barr won by 262 votes).
So, putting in the numbers from 2010 (getting rid of Powell and Estill, splitting Montgomery in half, and filling in both candidates’ percentages in Scott and Lincoln for the total number that turned out), here’s what you get:
Chandler- 114,845 (49.9 percent)
Barr- 115,370 (50.1 percent)
Chandler goes from a 647 vote win to a 525 vote loss.
Who will win the tag team match between Stumbo/Chandler and Thayer/Barr? Stay tuned.