Following last week’s PPP poll showing a deadlocked potential 2014 race between Sen. Mitch McConnell and Democrat Alison Lundergan Grimes, today Wenzel Strategies released a poll showing McConnell with a much more comfortable 7-point lead over Grimes, along with a 6-point lead over former Miss America Heather French Henry. The poll also showed a majority of Kentuckians have a favorable opinion of McConnell and grade his job performance as either “excellent” or “great.”
Fantastic news for the KY GOP, right?
Well, here is Wenzel Strategies’ track record from their polling last November:
Missouri Senate race, McCaskill (D) vs. Akin (R)
Wenzel: Akin by 4
Result: McCaskill by 16
Ohio Senate race, Brown (D) vs. Mandel (R)
Wenzel: Mandel by 5
Result: Brown by 6
Pennsylvania Senate race, Casey (D) vs. Smith (R)
Wenzel: Casey by 1
Result: Casey by 9
Virginia Senate race, Kaine (D) vs. Allen (R)
Wenzel: Allen by 3
Result: Kaine by 6
Wisconsin Senate race, Baldwin (D) vs. Thompson (R)
Wenzel: Thompson by 2
Result: Baldwin by 5
Ohio presidential race
Wenzel: Romney by 3
Result: Obama by 3
Virginia presidential race
Wenzel: Romney by 2
Result: Obama by 4
What we have here is a strong track record of getting statewide races wrong by wide 6-20 point margins, all in Republicans’ favor.
So Wenzel Strategies says that Grimes — who is currently weighing whether to jump into the race while determining whether she has a chance to win — is down by 7 percent? There’s no way on earth that Grimes, Kentucky Democrats, or the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee are looking at that poll and fretting about the invincibility of the beloved McConnell. Especially when Public Policy Polling — unarguably one of the most accurate pollsters of 2012, if not the most — has the race dead even.
All the Democrats need now is a candidate… grab a Snickers.
(Endnote: This is the first poll we’ve seen with Henry, so it’s difficult to determine what to make of this. Republicans would likely enjoy planting some seeds of doubt among Democrats that Grimes is the strongest candidate, so this may very well be some special Wenzel engineering to make Henry look like the strongest Democrat, but we’d have to see more reliable polling before we know for sure.)